By Richard Barkham
2000 to 2010 was once a striking decade for actual property. It begun with the dot.com bubble and ended with the putative restoration from the good monetary drawback. The meantime featured the world's first coordinated actual property increase and hunch. This ebook relies on a chain of briefings at the dating among macro monetary occasions and actual property markets within the period of globalisation that coated the interval. jointly they give particular insights, new principles and sensible methods to genuine property economics, grounded within the daily realities of funding, improvement and fund administration operations in a number one foreign estate corporation. learn more... Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- advent -- Macro-economics and actual property -- actual property and recession -- Inflation and genuine property -- Retailing and retail estate -- estate businesses and reits -- actual property and building -- Asia -- actual property returns -- Residential actual property -- Yields -- Appendix: modelling international genuine property yields -- international workplace markets -- To keep on with -- Index --
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Example text
For instance, in the period leading up to the GFC it was common to hear talk of the ‘great moderation’. Some politicians even referred to having overcome the economic cycle. After the fact, it is easier to see that inflation was partly held in check by widespread migration (keeping wages down); and the penetration of OECD markets by goods manufactured in low-cost China. Meanwhile, surplus savings in Asia were recycled, via the bond and money markets, into a vast build-up of debt: corporate, government and consumer.
Instead of developing policies to counter the economic challenge of Asia, governments have preferred to maintain the living standards of their electorates by borrowing from it. In summary, there are three strands to the argument that the ‘architecture’ of the global economy is fundamentally flawed. First, currency manipulation by the Chinese is seeing the OECD rapidly lose its share of world manufacturing markets. Second, the combination of rapid economic growth in Asia, particularly China, combined with high savings rates in the region, is flooding the global economy with cheap capital, depressing long-term interest rates in the OECD5.
That later made one of the first attempts to consider the implications of deflation for real estate returns; a theme others have considered in depth in the last three years. In January 2010 and March 2010, we examined the way in which central banks have targeted asset markets, including real estate, to force the pace of recovery in deflationary condi- Macro-economics and real estate 23 tions; our tentative conclusion is that an asset market revival provides a relatively ephemeral boost to economic activity.