By Ray Robinson (auth.)
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Example text
In the long-term, however, the socio-demographic factors become important; indeed, they are often considered more important and predictable than most economic variables. , and the housing requirements associated with them. Moreover, in many cases it has become the practice to use the concept of housing need, rather than demand, as the relevant measure of housing requirements. Here our main concern will be with those housing demand studies which stress conventional economic factors although, because of their widespread use in the area of long-term prediction, we have devoted the final section of this chapter to a discussion of the concept of housing need and some of the main features of projections using the concept.
Thus in the figure, a long-run equilibrium is achieved at a price of P* and a stock of OH*, with new construction equal to Oh*. If, however, this equilibrium is disturbed a sequence of changes will be set in motion. For example, suppose there is an increase in the demand for housing, resulting from, say, an increase in mortgage credit availability. This may be depicted by a second demand schedule D 1 D 1 • This will result in the price of the housing stock being bid up to P 1 , which will, in turn, provide an inducement for construction firms to increase their output of new housing to Oh '· This will lead to an increase in the stock of housing in the following period: an increase which is depicted by a new supply schedule SRS 2 .
5 This definition follows closely the traditional view formulated originally by Ratcliff (1949), in which the process is seen as involving both a decline in property values and a change in occupancy. 6 The chain is set in motion initially by households in high or middle income brackets who move into newly constructed housing. Lowry (1960) argues that the impetus for these moves will arise because of changes in tastes which take place over time: these, he argues, will make the housing presently occupied by higher income groups appear obsolete in terms of style and technology compared with new housing.